Exhibit 1 – Global use of nuclear to rise and gas to fall by 2050 Energy supply (EJ) Market share (%) CAARG (%) 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2050 2020–2030 2020–2050 Total energy supply 612 587 547 535 543 100 100 100 –0.7 –0.3 Renewables 67 69 167 295 362 12 30 67 9.3 5.7 Solar 4 5 32 78 109 1 6 20 21.0 11.0 Wind 5 6 29 67 89 1 5 16 17.0 9.6 Hydro 15 16 21 27 30 3 4 6 2.9 2.2 Modern solid bioenergy 31 32 54 73 73 5 10 14 5.3 2.8 Modern liquid bioenergy 4 3 12 14 15 1 2 3 14.0 4.9 Modern gaseous bioenergy 2 2 5 10 14 0 1 3 10.0 6.4 Other renewables 4 5 13 24 32 1 2 6 11.0 6.7 Traditional use of biomass 25 25 - - - 4 - - n.a. n.a. Nuclear 30 29 41 54 61 5 8 11 3.5 2.4 Unabated natural gas 139 136 116 44 17 23 21 3 –1.6 –6.6 Natural gas with CCUS 0 1 13 31 43 0 2 8 37.0 16.0 Oil 190 173 137 79 42 29 25 8 –2.3 –4.6 of which non-energy use 28 27 32 31 29 5 6 5 1.4 0.2 Unabated cool 160 154 68 16 3 26 12 12 –7.9 12.0 Coal with CCUS 0 0 4 16 14 0 1 3 60.0 22.0 Source: IEA Net Zero by 2050 Why does nuclear power divide opinion? Nuclear set to play an important role in securing global energy supply Proponents of nuclear power point to various factors in its favour: Despite ongoing divisions among individual European countries, the EU position on nuclear is now more aligned – V ery low carbon emissions with taxonomies in other parts of the world, where it is – R eliable baseload energy source considered a green source of energy. That said, much of – T he flexibility of its power output nuclear means it is well nuclear energy’s future expansion will be in markets outside adapted for the grid Europe. – N o science-based evidence that nuclear power, under normal operations, causes greater harm to human health In many developed economies, there has been a push to than other sources of power extend the lifecycle of reactors beyond the length of time – S trict regulation of all waste from the nuclear power they were originally designed for (typically 40 years) instead generation process of building new plants. The main expansion of nuclear – Lo w price volatility. power is therefore expected to be in the Asia-Pacific region, which looks set to account for two-thirds of additional units However, critics point to several drawbacks of nuclear over the coming years (see Exhibit 2). Over the longer term, power: China and India alone are expected to operate over 140 nuclear power reactors according to some sources. – C onstructing new nuclear power plants is technologically challenging and complex, and there is a weak track Today, there are more than 400 nuclear power plants record of keeping costs down and building new plants on around the world generating 367 gigawatts (GW) of power, time with another 57 under construction and a further 89 – D espite their very low frequency, incidents associated planned. However, between 2025-40, many existing plants with nuclear power can be extremely serious will reach the end of their planned lifetimes and will need to – P lants need to be in areas with low vulnerability to be decommissioned. physical risks – R adioactive waste has a very long lifespan and can be The resulting loss in power supply will need to be replaced difficult to store safely or the closures delayed as on their own, the new plants due – U ranium mining can have a negative impact on the to be constructed will not be sufficient to meet the target of environment. net zero emissions by 2050. As it stands, nuclear capacity is projected to hit 582 GW by 2040 – well below the 730 GW 2 required in the net-zero emissions by 2050 scenario . 1 According to a report by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, technologically advanced reactors are believed to have the lowest public fatality rate of all electricity production technologies. 2 According to an IEA report published in November 2021 (https://www.iea.org/reports/nuclear-power)
Nuclear and gas in the EU taxonomy: what this means for the energy mix of tomorrow Page 1 Page 3